dimitrysikorsky:

crazynutjob:

Screw it, let’s panic.

We’ve been waiting for a move in the green line substantially up or down from the trend. That would be a nice indicator (two months delayed) of an inflationary explosion or deflationary collapse. From a strictly monetary perspective, neither option seems to be winning right now.

If we examine prices, it is possible that money has moved out of certain asset classes and into other asset classes that we, as a society, are more price sensitive to. Wheat prices have spiked recently, though they are still down significantly from their peak in 2008. This could be due to export restrictions in Russia, and not money movements. Coffee prices are way up, though this too might be due to supply issues. In general, food and beverages seem to be increasing in price. These are the prices we care about on a day-to-day basis. Despite this, CPI growth is rather muted. Part of that is due to the fact that the CPI is weighted in interesting ways and then built up out of statistical voodoo. Part of it is due to the stickiness of consumer end prices.

» Coffee prices are way up, though this too might be due to supply issues.

Indeed it. Some asshole in Europe tried to corner the market a month or two ago.

Also man..chill out. We will go up when we go up and we will go down when we go down. Get a nice bottle of wine and dump all your money into rubles, comrade.

-Dimitry

I think you’re thinking of cocoa, not coffee. Though it was pretty close to “Trading Places.”