correlationstonone:

Let’s play the stock market game.  If GM’s stock price one year from now is higher than it closes today at 4:30 PM, I will post a video indicating that I was wrong about the stock market.  In that video I will name my opponents in the bet and sing their praises.  If you lose the bet, you have to post a video singing the praises of C2N and recommend me in the tumblr directory.

Caveats and conditions:

1. We take any splits into account.  EG, a 2-for-1 split would be “backed into” the 1-for-2 price.
2. Share buyback kills the deal.  
3. On the other side of buybacks, a secondary issuance kills the deal.
4. Further Federal investment kills the deal.  This includes any large-scale stimulus plan like QE3.
5. Further car subsidies kill the deal.  Cash for Clunkers and related programs are corporate welfare - a sequel is essentially a direct payment from taxpayers to every car company.  Counting on subsidy is investing for Congressmen dummies.

If you’re in, reply, reblog, or otherwise let me know.  Sucker.

Given that they still have a $13 billion hole in their pension obligations, I could probably feel safe taking this bet. Not because I’d win, but because your caveat about further bailouts kills the deal and I wouldn’t lose. Since you widened the net to include QE3 and the like, I’m feeling even more confident this is a no-lose bet.